Mortgage Insurance Companies Bounced Back

The Blue Ocean Management Team

US investors and market participants learned so much from 2008 Financial crisis when equity market sunk deep and recession sat in briefly. This time when Covid-19 pandemic hit, Fed ensured both markets as early as March 2020, equity market and consumer spending remain working, so that when economic activity regains, market will recover fast at its full length.

Now, September 2020 we have some data available showing what people have done during the lock-down. According to the earnings report in August 18, Home Depot had its highest revenue growth, 23% up from the last year,  in its last 20-year-business history (Grossman, 2020, Aug 18). Likewise, O’Railly, auto parts retailer also outperformed its analysts estimate, showing that consumers spent time to repair and maintain their cars home (Lee, 2020, July 30). Similarly, US consumers have bought many DYI items from Etsy, Michaels, and Shopify to spend time home productively.

What is the difference between 08 and 2020? In 2008, housing markets were overvalued, and mortgage securities were dysfunctional. In 2020, housing markets are not causing the problems. By contrast, governments asked consumers to stay home. Actually, as the previous article mentioned, more people even bought houses.

Wait! We did see this movie before. Even after the deepest troubled era, essentially, 2013 mortgage insurance companies, Essent Group, Radian Group, MGIC, and NMI Holdings, bounced back, their shares are up 62% in 2013 (Scism & Timiraos, 2013, September 18).

Then, mortgage insurance companies should be in better place than now, in that housing markets are considerably healthy.

Cite as:

Rachel Kim (2020, September 19). Mortgage Insurance Companies Bounced Back, The Blue Ocean Management, Retrieved from: https://theblueoceanmanagement.com/2020/09/19/mortgage-insurance-companies-bounced-back/

 

References:

Grossman, 2020, Aug 18, Wall Street Journal

Lee, 2020, July 30, Wall Street Journal

Scism & Timiraos, 2013, September 18, Wall Street Journal

Bifurcation in Mortgage Loan Markets

The Blue Ocean Management Team

 In early March and April when Covid-19 pandemic just started, mortgage markets sunk steeply. After that short period, there has been bifurcation in mortgage markets recovery between jumbo loans, i.e. larger than $510,400* and conforming mortgage loans. Before Covid-19, jumbo loans were viewed as less risky, as they were owned by wealthier customers (McCaffrey, 2020, July 27). That has changed in Covid-19 pandemic when Fed intervened.

Most banks and non-bank lenders heightened lending standards of jumbo loans, particularly required almost perfect credit scores and high downpayment of  even 35% of the principle (McLaughlin, 2020, June 25). As of June 16, 11.8% of jumbo loans were in forbearance, compared with 8.7% of all mortgages (Black Knight, 2020, July). Please see the table below.

Possible reason that jumbo loans, wealthy house owners, went delinquent higher than conforming loans can be found at the Care Act that government agencies stepped in for defaulted monthly payments of conforming loans. Federal Reserve decisively prevented mortgage market from a possible breakdown as Financial crisis in 2008 and bought unlimited amount of mortgage backed securities (Federal Reserve, 2020, March 23). This measure made conforming loans looking much safer to lenders, than jumbo loans that are not protected by the Care Act. A jumbo loan is too big for government-backed mortgages (McCaffrey, 2020, July 27).

The new strict standards for jumbo loans are one of many changes that Covid-19 brought to us. In addition, shown the graph below, there are high level of new loan originations in June 2020, higher than 2019, which means beyond recovery. Apparently, many people bought their houses (Black Knight, 2020, July).

With low interest rate until 2023, Jerome Powell promised today, September 16, in his FOMC statement, still, buying assets may be MBA finance investment textbook answers. Ideally, the assets must be smaller than jumbo loans. 

 

 

Cite as:

Rachel Kim (2020, September 19). Bifurcation in Mortgage Loan Markets, The Blue Ocean Management, Retrieved from: https://theblueoceanmanagement.com/2020/09/16/bifurcation-in-mortgage-loan/

 

 

 

*Note1: in the high living cost areas, jumbo loans must be larger than $765,600.

References:

Black Knight, 2020, July, Black Knight’s Mortgage Monitor Report, Black Knight Inc.com

Federal Reserve, 2020, March 23, Federal Reserve announces extensive new measures to support the economy, Federal Reserve.Gov

McLaughlin, 2020, June 25, The Jumbo Market Shows Signs of Heating Up, Wall Street Journal.com

McCaffrey, 2020, July 27, Jumbo Mortgage Rates Are No Longer the Cheapest Around, Wall Street Journal.com

Too Fast and Electric? Tesla

The Blue Ocean Management Team

Tesla and its CEO, Elon Musk, have been featured in many newspapers in early September 2020. In early 2020, Tesla reached $270 billion in market value, faster than anticipated and higher than even Toyota currently valued at $200 billion (Randewich, 2020, January 8).

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Furthermore, there was hopeful anticipation that S&P 500 Index may include Tesla or not. Elon Musk may get paid $800 million due to his stock option included in his pay package in 2018 (Grant, 2020, September 10).

Higher valuation than normally would have been a norm for Tesla. Even in its IPO 2020, market value of Tesla was higher than its operation capability. There was a concern that $15 per share might be too high for Tesla (Cowan & Jarzemsky, 2010, June 30). After the Split, Tesla stocks are around $450 per share in 2020 September, makes the company valued at $ 419 billion.

In the long run, electric vehicles are what we have to own and drive for the Planet, particularly looking at bloody smoky sky in San Francisco due to the Wild Fire. However, too fast and too much investing based on our hope may have a bumpy ride ahead unless some extra cash in hands or option at play as SoftBank showed off.

Another way to invest in EV sector would be looking at other competitors with low prices: Ford, GM, Lucid, Nikola.

Cite as:

Rachel Kim ( 2020, September 15). Too Fast and Electric? Tesla, The Blue Ocean Management, Retrieved from: https://theblueoceanmanagement.com/2020/09/15/too-fast-and-electric-tesla/

 

References:

Grant, 2020, September 10, Wall Street Journal

Cowan & Jarzemsky, 2010, June 30, Wall Street Journal

Randewich, 2020, January 8, Reuters.com

Statista, 2020, August 7, Statista.com

Rachel Kim, 2020, The Blue Ocean Management, Retrieved from: https://theblueoceanmanagement.com/2020/09/06/us-stock-market-down/

Food Industry is Moving Slowly, Very Slowly, to Innovate its Food Product and its Business.

The Blue Ocean Management Team

Consumer staple sector might be the most slowly growing one, compared to technology sector. As the prior article suggested, however, there are many indicators that food industry is innovating its products and its business models.

Nestlé keeps its keen eye on the ball namely the most promising markets. For example, global pet food  has jumped to 61% higher than 2010 according to Euromonitor. Likewise, in 2020, US pet owners have increased their spending 9.39% higher than spending in 2018, $90.5 billion (Chaudhuri, 2020, June 15). Pet food and treats are major portion of the spending, which is the revenue of Purina pet food grow steadily. Purina is a business of Nestlé global conglomerate.

Recently, Nestlé made a bet on health science business, allergy treatment. First, Nestlé started purchasing shares of Aimmune in November 2016 and then decided to acquire the company in August 2020 (Bugault, 2020, August 31; Globenewswire, 2020, August 31). The term of transaction is to buy all the outstanding shares of common stock, as Nestlé already owned 25.6% of Aimmune. Based on this bid, Nestlé is going to sell pet foods, treats, and allergy treatment with them. If you think of who pay for all, they might be the same target customers, head of household who might be interested in bulky purchase from one company at good deals.

Cite as:

Rachel Kim (2020, September 9). Food Industry is Moving Slowly, Very Slowly, to Innovate its Food Product and its Business, The Blue Ocean Management, Retrieved from: https://theblueoceanmanagement.com/category/theblueoceanmanagement/market-trend-foresight/

References:

Bugault, 2020, August 31, Wall Street Journal.com

Globenewswire, 2020, August 31, GlobeNewsWire.com

Chaudhuri, 2020, June 15, Wall Street Journal.com

 

Socially Responsible and Conscious Eaters Welcome Beyond Meat &Food Innovation

The Blue Ocean Management Team

Now more than ever, socially responsible and conscious customers look for items without feeling sorry for animals. Most new makeup products carry the label saying no animal experiment or no animal cruelty in short. Vegetarians are proud of themselves in this regard. According to the Vegetarian Blogs, 254 million adults are casual vegetarians; 116.8 million are interested in becoming ones.

Meanwhile meat lovers argue that they care for animals. Their punchline is or used to be that they cannot give up on taste of beef barbeques and grilled hotdogs. Beyond Meat is a maker and seller of plant-based meat, who started its business with loyal customers in California.

In 2019, Beyond sold $40.2 million and it increased to $97.1 million in 2020 first quarter. Possible reason might be that the company launched Chinese market via Starbucks. Tyson Foods had to reduce its production due to Covid-19 pandemic (Chin, 2020, May 5).

 

Cite as:

Rachel Kim (2020, September 7). Socially Responsible and Conscious Eaters Welcome Beyond Meat & Food Innovation, The Blue Ocean Management, Retrieved from: https://theblueoceanmanagement.com/category/theblueoceanmanagement/market-trend-foresight/

 

Following a Big Rally and Sober Look

The Blue Ocean Management Team

After US stock market were down for the two days, there are theoretical explanations and possibly blamable invisible big institution, namely Soft Bank.

Rising Delta  (Root, 2020, September 1;Root, 2020, September 4 ) was one of explanation that the unusual stock market rally in this unusual circumstance when economic activities are still low, though recovering from entire shot down; while SoftBank might have caused Delta to rise unusually fast (Levisohn, 2020, September 4;McDonald, 2020, September 1). Most investors and traders may have been licking their sour wounds due to stock market down last two days wondering what just happened. Knowing why might be a good start of 12 steps of addiction break therapy, if greed-driven trading is one of mental addiction.

 

Cite as:

Rachel Kim (2020, September 6). Following a Big Rally and Sober Look, The Blue Ocean Management.com, Retrieved from: https://theblueoceanmanagement.com/2020/09/06/us-stock-market-down/

 

 

References:

Levisohn, 2020, September 4, Barrons.com

McDonald, 2020, September 1, The Bear Traps Report

Root, 2020, September 1, Barrons.com

Root, 2020, September 4, Barrons.com

Why Warehouses are Popular? Is it a Short Trend or Long Trend?

The Blue Ocean Management Team

Cold warehouses became popular, particularly when Amazon targeted grocery delivery business with its acquisition of Whole Food in 2017 (Stevens, L. & Gasparro, A., 2017, June 16). As Amazon tends to illuminate a promising business area in near future,  this has been a strong trend (Phillips, E. E., 2018, July, 17).

Even before Covid-19 pandemic, online grocery sales grew and cold-storage warehouses are on high demand. Tyson Foods Inc, Kroger Co., Walmart Inc., and FreschDirectLLC are looking for refrigerated warehouses (Phillips, E. E., 2018, July, 17; Fung, E. 2019, December 10).

In Covid-19 Pandemic era, e-commerce sector has been further strengthening, warehouses are getting spotlight. Warehouses are located near city centers with lower rental fees (Wilmot, 2020, August 25). Lineage Logistics LLC and Americold Realty Trust own 63% of the cold-storage warehouses , according to the International Association of Refrigerated Warehouses ( Fung, E. 2019, December 10). If you are looking for a strong and lasting trend, this might be one of food innovation or food business innovation trend.

Cite as:

Rachel Kim (2020, September 4). Why Warehouses are Popular? Is it a short trend or long trend?, The Blue Ocean Management.com, retrieved from: https://theblueoceanmanagement.com

 

References:

Fung, E. 2019, December 10, Wall Street Journal

Phillips, E. E., 2018, July, 17, Wall Street Journal

Stevens, L. & Gasparro, A., 2017, June 16, Wall Street Journal

Wilmot, 2020, August 25,  Wall Street Journal

Emerging Payment Companies on the rise of e-Commerce

The Blue Ocean Management Team

Global trends of business have been strengthening e-commerce sector, even before Covid-19 Pandemic. In 2020, it has been a only way to do business in USA when lockdown was announced statewide, particularly New York and California. Due to the importance of online transactions, payment companies are getting attention and higher valuation as well.

There are immense investment interest in payment companies including established ones and emerging new players based on small business. Visa and PayPal Holdings are globally known companies in this sector.

There are BigCommerce, Bill.com, and Coupa Software. Among them, Wix might be a newcomer yet potential one, due to its bases on website building packages that small business owners are familiar with (Demos, 2020, August 27). Wix has some 180 million registered users globally and currently partners with GoDaddy as a endorsed payment (Demos, 2020, August 27; Norton, 2020, August 28).

Cite as: 

Rachel Kim (2020, August 25). Emerging Payment Companies on the rise of e-Commerce, The Blue Ocean Management.com, retrieved from: https://theblueoceanmanagement.com/trendforesight

AstraZeneca Makes a Big Splash

The Blue Ocean Management Team

Among Covid-19 vaccine candidates, the Oxford and AstraZeneca vaccine might be worthwhile to mention here. Their vaccine is going to deliver the genetic code for the spikes coming out of  the new coronavirus and generate an immune response to fight against coronavirus.

The generic code was developed from chimpanzees and showed minor side effect in humans in phase 1 and 2. Phase 3 clinical trials started with 30,000 participants in US in August and with 70,000 in the UK, Brazil and South Africa. Production estimate is that AstraZeneca will be able to produce 2 billion doses worldwide (Rivas, A., Loftus, P. & Cervantes, A., 2020, September 1; Deng & Walker, 2020, August 6).

Cite as:

Rachel Kim (2020, September 2). AstraZeneca makes a big splash, The Blue Ocean Management, retrieved from:https://theblueoceanmanagement.com

Mobile Games are Hot

The Blue Ocean Management Team

Now than ever, a cellphone is a consumer necessity for authorization to work systems, for delivery, for opening door, for social network, for a ride, of course, and for even education: such as Moodle or Education systems. As the reflection of the facts listed, Apple continues to rise its share price today, September 1, 2020, regardless of political uncertainty upcoming presidential election in US or trade tension with China.

If you missed an opportunity to invest in current stock market trend, let’s think what can be sold to mobile phone users? Here comes mobile games that do not need video game consoles. Zynga’ games: FarmVille or CityVille, earned its popularity and name recognition via Facebook. When Facebook made a new game appear before the games known, in 2012, Zynga Inc had lost $22.8 million in its second quarter and its stock went down to 70% from its initial public offering price: $10. Zynga Inc restructured its top managers to integrate web and mobile platforms in 2012 July, according to the company’s announcement. Zynga delayered its previous structure between its CEO, John Schappert, and its Chief Mobile Officer, David Ko, which looked to emphasize on mobile game offering via Android and iPhones (Raice, 2012, August 9).

In 2020, August 31, Zynga shares rose 5.57%, in part because its second quarter earnings expected to be higher than its published guidance of $460 million and to complete its acquisition of Peak, Turkish Mobile game studio (Needleman, 2020, June 1).

Cite as:

Rachel Kim (2020, September 1). Mobile Games are Hot, The Blue Ocean Management, Retrieved from: https://theblueoceanmanagement.com/

Long Inflation Ahead

The Blue Ocean Management Team

US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced that central bank will allow inflation to go higher than 2% for a certain period in August 27, 2020. US market responded as being prepared for long-term inflation: Gold rose and fell; Bond yields fell and rose; stock futures were mostly down while major indexes were higher one day after, August 28, 2020. Since 2008, US has targeted inflation below 2%. (Vigna & Hirtenstein, 2020, August 27). Assuming that US banks will increase interest rate, US bank sector in US stock went up. S&P500’s financial sector rose 1.7%.

Cite as “ Rachel Kim (2020, August 25). Long Inflation Ahead, The Blue Ocean Management.com, retrieved from: https://theblueoceanmanagement.com/ ”

 

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The Blue Ocean Management Team

About The Blue Ocean Asset Management Partners, LLC:

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